Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (8-4) vs Florida State Seminoles (6-6) — FSU -14.5, O/U 48.5 — 12:30 PM CST

FSU is a big program following up an awful season with a coaching change and a mid-tier bowl game. Why would we expect them to even show up? Southern Miss is a team that rallied to win their last three games behind a strong defense.  FSU is clearly the better athletes, but are they the better team? Not sure about that fact, and that is why we’ll say Southern Miss 23-20, with the attacking USM forcing FSU’s young QB into mistakes. Every bowl season needs a good, embarrassing upset of a former powerhouse.


Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) vs Boston College Eagles (7-5) — UI -2.5, O/U 45 — 5:15 PM EST

This game is a great match-up of two programs that love a good fist-fight, and the defensive-minded, run-orientated teams both will try and pound the ground game and out-tough each other. Who will win, the city-slicker Catholics and their superior ground game with A.J. Dillon (he’s very good), or the Lutheran farm boys and their superior defense with Josey Jewell (he’s very, very good). Our theory has long been you do not out-tough Iowa, and that’s what BC will try and do, so… 27-15 Hawkeyes thanks to two defensive scores, and the Outlaw Josey maybe kills a dude again…


Arizona Wildcats (7-5) vs Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) — UA -3, O/U 65 — 5:30 PM PST

Khalil Tate has proven this year he is a bad, bad man, running roughshod over half the PAC 12 this year in an absurd streak of games. However two teams at the end of the season figured something out, and good coaches note this type of thing. Jeff Brohm is a really good coach, and boasts a really good run defense. They contained Lamar Jackson to start the year, and shut down some run-centric programs such as Wisconsin. Thus we think this game leans toward Purdue, but only after some points are scored. Arizona’s young defense struggles, and Purdue’s makes some big, ball-jarring hits late, 37-34 Boilers in the upset.



Texas Longhorns (6-6) vs Missouri Tigers (7-5) — MU -3, O/U 61 — 8 PM CST 

Essentially a home game for Texas, you’d expect a good showing from kids playing in the team’s first bowl game in a few years, and in front of family. The issue is none of those kids are playing. Between suspensions (3 players), injury (at least 2 players), draft bowl-dodging (3 players), and transfer (lead back Chris Warren), the Horns are a shell of themselves, and without their four best players. Then there is the fact Mizzou is on fire lately, having roared back from a poor start to win six straight, and has an actual offense that can run AND pass (unlike Texas). Mizzou piles up passing yards against a depleted Horn back seven, and Tom Herman loses more support, 42-13 Tigers.